2009: It is tough to imagine a more highly anticipated Hawaii Ironman World Championships than this year, although we seem to say that each year! In both the men’s and women’s races there are a host of athletes who can lay claim to have a real impact on the race, and the depth of fields is greater than in any previous year. Despite the list of impressive names on the start list, and promises of ‘shoulder to shoulder’ racing toward the line, I have a feeling that the race will not play out too differently than in past years.

It is not all about on what’s on paper
There has been plenty of speculation that we will get to see multiple athletes running extremely fast marathon splits this year. Browsing over the start-list it is certainly true that there are plenty of athletes with potential to run very fast. Unfortunately, the unforgiving conditions of Hawaii and the size of the occasion usually diminished the total number of athletes running to potential. I envision two to three male athletes running in the lower 2.40’s, and a similar number of women potentially cracking 3 hours, but many more reduced to well off potential. Much of the reason for this can be attributed to two factors - preparation and execution.

As Hawaii is the big race of the year, with the history and reputation of grueling conditions, many athletes tend to inadvertently leave their race on the training course. Fitness is seldom the limiter for professional triathletes, but many of our best athletes log so many hard hours, in search of that extra percentage of performance, that they arrive fit but tired. On race day this is exposed with a fatigued and heavy performance – the cruelest return on the training investment! Even if fully prepared, many athletes fail to execute the optimal race strategy. Hoping for that magical day, many athletes step outside of their optimal intensity zone in search of something special. They fail to manage their effort, and this impatience is normally rewarded with a high-energy cost (and a rapid slowdown) later in the race. It happens every year and is sure to occur again. We will see many sub-par performances by some of our highest performers – and many of the supposed favorites will be reduced to very normal results.

So who will get the rewards?
It is always so tough to predict who is going to have the race each year. Even optimal preparation and execution requires the addition of some luck to result in optimal performance. It is obvious to say that there will be a special performance by one male and female that will lead to victory, but we can also expect a great result from two different athletes in each category. The first athlete is the dark horse. We are sure to see a great result from an athlete that few people anticipated such a finish. Ironically, while it is a surprise to most, the athlete, coach and support network and not often too surprised. There are plenty of candidates this year, off the radar of the media, but ready to unleash a great result. Look for a podium finish, or top 5, from someone outside the pre-race predictions of being an ‘impact-athlete’. This year I think this person may well be one of the established athletes who will turn heads with a great performance, but this is just my gut. The second athlete will be the smart and steady. Hawaii often rewards those who are steady all day, and while an overall victory may come to the one who makes the decisive move, a top 5 or 10 finish can be attained by the patient and consistent athlete. With good preparation and a good day, the athlete that follows his or her race plan, without deviation, and runs the pace and effort level appropriate to them, will have a top finish. Often creeping through the field as others falter, the smart and steady athlete will pop up onto the leader board in the lava fields later in the race. It sounds obvious, but is not an easy thing to do, but we will be sure to see another again this year.

The new generation
Much has been made of the new generation of athletes that are joining Ironman. Can they have the impact on how the race is raced, and the final results? I think the answer is more certainly yes, and the added depth to both the men’s and women’s field has caused a massive rise in overall level of competition. Many of the athletes have come form a short course background, adding an injection of speed into the event. I think that this is a part of a bigger evolution of training and approach to the elite level of Ironman. There is a much greater understanding that fitness is seldom the limiter at this level of the sport, and speed and intensity is an integral part of the training and preparation. While the speedy new young athletes have shown the benefits of speed training, the veterans of Ironman have not been left behind. There is an evolution of thought and training approach, which nearly all elite athletes have adopted into training.

We are sure to see some new faces make their big entrance onto the Hawaii scene on Saturday, but also expect to see some of the same faces of the last few years staying right up at the front end of the race. Knowledge and experience count for much on this Island – it will be fun to see the clash of youth against experience.

For updates on race day from the course, and insights into all purplepatch athletes, including Chris and Matt Lieto and Tyler Stewart, follow purplepatch on twitter: www.twitter.com/ppfknowledge.

It is going to be quite a race. Best of luck to everyone in Hawaii 2009!