Armstrong training in Kona
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tri-ac posted 42 weeks ago.
maybe i need to think about trying IM and qualifying so that i can be in his AG at Kona...
i think i can take him...he's a month younger than me
now where can i find a cheap entourage, motor pacer, and bmw follow-car? :)
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TriSooner posted 42 weeks ago.
I still think he would dominate to such an extent it would be ridiculous. He averaged 26mph/40kph over all of his TdF wins (Seven wins, 160+ days, 15,500 miles. So 112 in one day would be a cake walk). And he has a 2:46 NYC marathon. Even with a MOPer swim, his bike would put him so far ahead that a pedestrian 3hr run would still take "OA #1". I'd put $$$ on him being the first to go sub-8 at Kona.
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The Dude posted 42 weeks ago.
TriSooner wrote:
I still think he would dominate to such an extent it would be ridiculous. He averaged 26mph/40kph over all of his TdF wins (Seven wins, 160+ days, 15,500 miles. So 112 in one day would be a cake walk). And he has a 2:46 NYC marathon. Even with a MOPer swim, his bike would put him so far ahead that a pedestrian 3hr run would still take "OA #1". I'd put $$$ on him being the first to go sub-8 at Kona.
He would probably do well on the swim because he use to race and likely has a good stroke. The limiting factor, as for so many IM athletes, would mostly likely be the marathon. His NY time is decent, but not even close to being world class. That is important to remember because you're talking about breaking triathlon's most cherished record, which means that he has to go faster than every world class IM triathlete that came before him. That is a tough order for anyone...
-Tod
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Tamara posted 42 weeks ago.
The more important issue here.....TRIBRO'S BETRAYING US BY HANGING OUT AT ST???? C'mon Dad, don't leave us! :-)
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triath02 posted 42 weeks ago.
I'm sure he could break the course bike record, but have reservations about his being able to hold off some of the better runners on the marathon. A 2:46 NYC Marathon doesn't translate to a sub 3 hr. Kona marathon. It seems that you have to be able to go sub 2:50 to win regardless of biking ability. Look at Torbjorn Sindballe. He has a go at it every year and comes up short. He's no Lance Armstrong, but it shows that ability to lay down a fast IM marathon is a must. On the other hand, I'm not sure that Lance won't have a go at Kona unless he's sure of his ability to stay with the top guys.
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jsk85 posted 42 weeks ago.
triath02 wrote:
On the other hand, I'm not sure that Lance won't have a go at Kona unless he's sure of his ability to stay with the top guys.
I guess I don't know why not, the fact that it seems he would be able to hold his own on the swim...likely redefine what's fast on the bike, and run what would most-likely be a low 3hr (if not sub 3) marathon would put him right in the hunt for overall #1, BUT he wouldn't be entering as a pro I don't think. I think he'd be all but guaranteed to be top AG, and even though I'm sure he'd go with the intention of taking OA #1...if he winds up OA top 15 and #1 AG in his first go at an IM, I think people would definately "understand" why he came up short, considering it hasn't been his sport for 5-10+ years like most Hawaii champions.
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jhudalla posted 42 weeks ago.
triath02 wrote:
On the other hand, I'm not sure that Lance won't have a go at Kona unless he's sure of his ability to stay with the top guys.
I'd say this is the real discussion. He's such a competitor, he probly wouldn't show unless he can go top ten. I'd put money on him killing the IM bike record and still making the top 10 in his first out.
Weary is the path that does not challenge.
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tri-ac posted 42 weeks ago.
why bother with a bike record if he can't run afterwards?
his mantra: "don't compete if he can't complete"
imagine if he DNF'ed...not good for his campaign
his standalone marathon is good, but it has beat up his cycling body in the two he has run
he has a lot to train for in the running department...
i agree with jsk85 that he goes AG and does well but doesn't threaten the pros for OA win
my prediction: IF he's prepped, he'll put out a torbjorn-type performance
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PrinceofClydes posted 42 weeks ago.
He might feel a conflict between his desire to get NBC attention for his LIVESTRONG anti-cancer campaign by participating,
and his desire to compete at the highest level,
which, given his age and his time away from competition of this nature i.e. triathlon, may be beyond him.
He has to choose his priorities just like the rest of us.
Given his following, I'm sure the TV ratings would be high.
PoC
""Your ass looks fantastic. Are the kids in bed yet???"
- TonisTri. 10/2009
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TriSooner posted 42 weeks ago.
The Dude wrote:
His NY time is decent, but not even close to being world class.
Warning: Tread-jack Wait, what? 2:46 is "decent"? So finishing 232nd out of 38,557 OA or 108 out of 7,000 in his AG (both 99% percentile!) is decent? Even if you meant that a 2:46 is decent for a pro male triathlete, at Kona '08, there were ~70 pro males and "only" 15 went sub-3 in the marathon. So the smattering of 2:55 finishers was just decent too? He'd (theoretically) only have to run faster than about 1 in 5 pro men - which is a very small field - not every world class triathlete (because the majority can't go sub-3).
jsk85 wrote:
hold his own on the swim, redefine what's fast on the bike, and run what would most-likely be a low 3hr marathon would put him right in the hunt for overall #1
That seems like a rather obvious formula/likely outcome for me too.
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jonovision_man posted 42 weeks ago.
TriSooner wrote:
The Dude wrote:His NY time is decent, but not even close to being world class.Warning: Tread-jack Wait, what? 2:46 is "decent"?
Craig Alexander won with a 2:45 marathon... and to state the obvious, that was after the bike and swim. :) Not sure what his stand-alone marathon times have been (if he's even tried) but presumably a good deal faster than that.
jono
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jhudalla posted 42 weeks ago.
Stadler's best marathon was 2:32:xx in germany - post 2007 Kona IM. He's never been the strongest runner but his bike makes the difference. If Lance could keep up on the swim (2nd group) he could run away with the bike and have enough cushion for the run for sure... only time will tell.
PS: Lance's best was at boston 2:42:xx
Weary is the path that does not challenge.
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beads1985 posted 42 weeks ago.
TriSooner wrote:
I still think he would dominate to such an extent it would be ridiculous. He averaged 26mph/40kph over all of his TdF wins (Seven wins, 160+ days, 15,500 miles. So 112 in one day would be a cake walk). And he has a 2:46 NYC marathon. Even with a MOPer swim, his bike would put him so far ahead that a pedestrian 3hr run would still take "OA #1". I'd put $$$ on him being the first to go sub-8 at Kona.
Well I think he would have his bike base down after TdF next year so he needs to work on coming off the bike into a Marathon and his swim.
It is not like his 'Job' will hold him back. If he sets a goal his 'Job' will be him training and talking about it.
I agree that 112 miles after all the cycling he will be doing will be easy for him. Kona might be challenging but it is pretty flat. If he averages 28 mph or better he could break 4 hours on the bike.
If he trains right and does a 1 hour swim and a 3 hour marathon he would just be over 8 hours with T1 and T2.
I'd like to see it one way or another. ;-)
'Nothing to it, but to do it!'
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The Dude posted 42 weeks ago.
TriSooner wrote:
The Dude wrote:His NY time is decent, but not even close to being world class.Warning: Tread-jack Wait, what? 2:46 is "decent"? So finishing 232nd out of 38,557 OA or 108 out of 7,000 in his AG (both 99% percentile!) is decent? Even if you meant that a 2:46 is decent for a pro male triathlete, at Kona '08, there were ~70 pro males and "only" 15 went sub-3 in the marathon. So the smattering of 2:55 finishers was just decent too? He'd (theoretically) only have to run faster than about 1 in 5 pro men - which is a very small field - not every world class triathlete (because the majority can't go sub-3).
jsk85 wrote:hold his own on the swim, redefine what's fast on the bike, and run what would most-likely be a low 3hr marathon would put him right in the hunt for overall #1That seems like a rather obvious formula/likely outcome for me too.
I thought it was obvious that I meant "decent" in terms of a standalone marathon. That's a decent time for a committed recreational runner, but it is nowhere near world class. The point is that there is a very big difference between doing very well and being among the world's elite. A better comparison would be to find a world class IM competitor who has also done standalone marathons and then try to figure out some type of adjustment between standalone and IM marathons.
Whatever happens, I think it would be a blast to watch and it would be good for the sport.
-Tod
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panchotri posted 42 weeks ago.
Why he has put a video clip out in the triathlon world though? Why he wants the blogs talk about the pros and cons? He is the type of person that doesn’t need anybody’s opinion. Why now? Maybe he is not sure he can live up to the kona expectations.
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The Dude posted 42 weeks ago.
panchotri wrote:
Why he has put a video clip out in the triathlon world though? Why he wants the blogs talk about the pros and cons? He is the type of person that doesn’t need anybody’s opinion. Why now? Maybe he is not sure he can live up to the kona expectations.
I was wondering the same thing earlier today. Seems like he wants to gauge the triathlon community's reaction...
-Tod
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J.Michael posted 42 weeks ago.
The Dude wrote:
panchotri wrote:Why he has put a video clip out in the triathlon world though? Why he wants the blogs talk about the pros and cons? He is the type of person that doesn’t need anybody’s opinion. Why now? Maybe he is not sure he can live up to the kona expectations.
I was wondering the same thing earlier today. Seems like he wants to gauge the triathlon community's reaction...
Or maybe, he's fulfilling his objective to raise awareness about Livestrong?...
Which is his actual reason for competing from what has been published.
Getting people taking about it is the 1st step.
If he goes through with an IM at Kona, don't think for a moment that it won't be a pretty darn big part of the televised coverage backstory. (no matter where he places)
“Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm.”
— Winston Churchill
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The Dude posted 42 weeks ago.
J.Michael wrote:
The Dude wrote:panchotri wrote:Why he has put a video clip out in the triathlon world though? Why he wants the blogs talk about the pros and cons? He is the type of person that doesn’t need anybody’s opinion. Why now? Maybe he is not sure he can live up to the kona expectations.
I was wondering the same thing earlier today. Seems like he wants to gauge the triathlon community's reaction...Or maybe, he's fulfilling his objective to raise awareness about Livestrong?...
Which is his actual reason for competing from what has been published.
Getting people taking about it is the 1st step.If he goes through with an IM at Kona, don't think for a moment that it won't be a pretty darn big part of the televised coverage backstory. (no matter where he places)
Good point about the Livestrong angle.
-Tod
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Anton posted 42 weeks ago.
I believe he said his main goal was to raise awareness...look here:
http://www.charitynavigator.org/index.cfm?bay=search.summary&orgid=6570
You'll see that the foundation had a drop off in revenue in 2006. I did some fund raising for the LAF last year and heard through the grape vine that 2007 was lower still.
People have a short memory...if he wants to be able to continue doing good with the LAF he has to stay in the public eye...hence his marathons, his return to cycling and Kona possibilities...
It's good business...
"If e wishes to sweem in dangerous waters, oo are we to deny im?
-Chef Skinner
http://antonspath.blogspot.com
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The Dude posted 42 weeks ago.
Anton wrote:
I believe he said his main goal was to raise awareness...look here:
http://www.charitynavigator.org/index.cfm?bay=search.summary&orgid=6570You'll see that the foundation had a drop off in revenue in 2006. I did some fund raising for the LAF last year and heard through the grape vine that 2007 was lower still.
People have a short memory...if he wants to be able to continue doing good with the LAF he has to stay in the public eye...hence his marathons, his return to cycling and Kona possibilities...
It's good business...
It says a LOT about Armstrong's character if a large part of his motivation to keep competing is to raise money for his foundation. More classy than most people give him credit for being.
-Tod
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silverchair posted 42 weeks ago.
can he break the 4 hour bike?
olympic 2:10 IM 10:20
24hr sprint tri 8.5k swim, 250k bike, 89k run, 27 laps
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Kwschs posted 42 weeks ago.
silverchair wrote:
can he break the 4 hour bike?
O yea.... hah
I think he's one of the most gifted athletes to ever walk this earth. Granted athletes like Craig are just so over the top its amazing, there is something about Lance in my opinion
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Hmm... :)
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